EVER since the USA attacked and killed Osama bin Laden in his hideout in Abbottabad, US-Pak relations have been constantly deteriorating. While the USA was elated by the stunning coup it had pulled off, Pakistan could only seethe with resentment, having been exposed before the world for its double dealing no less than for the fragility of its defences. Its angry response was orchestrated by the army chief himself ~ significantly, not by the civilian leaders ~ and it has dwelt on the deliberate violation of Pakistan’s sovereign space, which is presented as a great affront to national sentiment.
That the fugitive found refuge on Pakistani soil has not served to moderate Pakistani indignation though this is the glaring fact that registers most strongly everywhere else. Now that no further concealment of the facts is possible, the Pak authorities are engaged in trying to control and shape the consequences. Repeated angry sallies against the US in Pakistan have kept the pot boiling and have raised tensions between the two sides. Nor has the USA failed to hit back, and it has struck at Pakistan’s most vulnerable point, its depleted finances.
Major cuts in US support for the Pak army have been announced, and while Pakistan has tried to maintain an unruffled façade, it can scarcely hope to find any ready alternative source of financial support. It has resorted to threats to end its troop deployment along the Afghan border, something for which US financial support has been provided for many years. In this fashion, bickering and threats have replaced the cooperation that both the countries have repeatedly described as essential to the long- term outcome in Afghanistan, where trouble continues to rage unabated.
While these differences simmer, an unending series of lethal incidents against targets in Pakistan has been engineered by Al Qaida and its sympathizers to show their anger at the hunting down of Bin Laden. The military establishment, especially the naval component in Karachi, has been a particular objective. Terrorist groups have been able to strike against well guarded facilities, inflicting great damage and raising fresh questions about the proficiency of the armed forces. And escalating casualties among civilians caught in the crossfire have further affected public morale ~ indeed, the uncertainties are such that many have felt compelled to change their pattern of life and keep away from potentially risky public places. In these circumstances, the latent hostility towards the USA that has been visible in Pakistan even at the best of times has become greatly aggravated.
For further complication, this is the time when US withdrawal from Afghanistan is set to commence. Already there is a change of the top US commander, and one of the provincial administrations has been handed over to full Afghan control; more will follow. How far these developments will affect the situation in the ‘Af-Pak’ region is a major current concern. For all their disputation, neither the USA nor Pakistan can afford a decisive breach in their relations, so there is a series of high level consultations between them to see how best they can jointly cope. It has been announced that a few score CIA officers who were rendered hors de combat owing to Pakistan’s refusal to give them visas will now be allowed to take up their duties. So the push and shove continues, a few grudging gestures doing little to disguise the prevailing ill will.
Neither side has yet made any significant move to put their differences behind them as they face up to the uncertainties that loom ahead. The USA has been unrepentant about its intrusion into Pakistani space, and has considered that the goal fully justified the means employed ~ indeed, far from assuaging Pakistani anger, the highest US officials have periodically spoken of their readiness to strike again if similar circumstances are found to exist. So much repair work remains to be done.
Rebuffed by the USA, Pakistan has turned to its ‘all weather friend’ China. As it is, in recent months, even before the Bin Laden episode, there has been a considerable stepping up of joint activity between the two in Pakistan’s border areas. Partly this is fortuitous: floods and landslides in the mountains have played havoc with the connecting road that China had built several years ago, and Pakistan has had to turn again to China to repair what it considers to be its strategic lifeline to that country. A work brigade organized on military lines remains engaged on this task. Senior figures from Pakistan have visited China, presumably to coordinate views and actions on the fallout from the Bin Laden affair. Unlike many others, China has not been censorious about the fugitive being found in Pakistan. But neither has it moved to fill the gap created by the partial withdrawal of US support. Optimistic Pakistanis may have hoped for a large compensatory commitment but China has not rushed in to help, and it may have reason to consider very carefully before becoming more fully engaged in the tangled affairs of South Asia. Thus Pakistan may be obliged to return to fashioning some sort of working arrangement with the USA, however galling this may seem in the present circumstances.
Where does India stand in the midst of these events? It cannot but take into account that despite all the tribulations it faces within its borders and on its western frontier, Pakistan has retained in full measure its strategic distrust of India. The dangers Pakistan sees from India outweigh in its strategic thinking all the problems on other fronts. Such beliefs reflect entrenched convictions that are difficult to dislodge, even though they have little to do with current realities. The fact is that India does not today represent, if it ever did, the existential threat to its neighbour that some of them fear. It should also be recognized that there are numerous Pakistanis who seek a new, less contentious basis of relationship with India. Most strikingly, at apex level, Dr Manmohan Singh and Gen Musharraf came close to a broad general agreement on bilateral relations through the back channel talks they had orchestrated. This is fundamental and India needs to persist, as indeed it is trying to do, in conveying its basic desire for peaceful and cooperative relations.
In the current disturbed conditions in South Asia, this may be difficult to achieve but the small, incremental measures envisaged in the ongoing ‘composite dialogue’ could well prove insufficient. What is needed if South Asia is to be effectively stabilized and secured from the buffeting that assails it is a genuine sea change in mutual perception, backed by effective and credible measures. This is a task for statesmen who can overcome the familiar restraints, and it must be hoped that South Asia’s leaders will rise to the challenge.
That the fugitive found refuge on Pakistani soil has not served to moderate Pakistani indignation though this is the glaring fact that registers most strongly everywhere else. Now that no further concealment of the facts is possible, the Pak authorities are engaged in trying to control and shape the consequences. Repeated angry sallies against the US in Pakistan have kept the pot boiling and have raised tensions between the two sides. Nor has the USA failed to hit back, and it has struck at Pakistan’s most vulnerable point, its depleted finances.
Major cuts in US support for the Pak army have been announced, and while Pakistan has tried to maintain an unruffled façade, it can scarcely hope to find any ready alternative source of financial support. It has resorted to threats to end its troop deployment along the Afghan border, something for which US financial support has been provided for many years. In this fashion, bickering and threats have replaced the cooperation that both the countries have repeatedly described as essential to the long- term outcome in Afghanistan, where trouble continues to rage unabated.
While these differences simmer, an unending series of lethal incidents against targets in Pakistan has been engineered by Al Qaida and its sympathizers to show their anger at the hunting down of Bin Laden. The military establishment, especially the naval component in Karachi, has been a particular objective. Terrorist groups have been able to strike against well guarded facilities, inflicting great damage and raising fresh questions about the proficiency of the armed forces. And escalating casualties among civilians caught in the crossfire have further affected public morale ~ indeed, the uncertainties are such that many have felt compelled to change their pattern of life and keep away from potentially risky public places. In these circumstances, the latent hostility towards the USA that has been visible in Pakistan even at the best of times has become greatly aggravated.
For further complication, this is the time when US withdrawal from Afghanistan is set to commence. Already there is a change of the top US commander, and one of the provincial administrations has been handed over to full Afghan control; more will follow. How far these developments will affect the situation in the ‘Af-Pak’ region is a major current concern. For all their disputation, neither the USA nor Pakistan can afford a decisive breach in their relations, so there is a series of high level consultations between them to see how best they can jointly cope. It has been announced that a few score CIA officers who were rendered hors de combat owing to Pakistan’s refusal to give them visas will now be allowed to take up their duties. So the push and shove continues, a few grudging gestures doing little to disguise the prevailing ill will.
Neither side has yet made any significant move to put their differences behind them as they face up to the uncertainties that loom ahead. The USA has been unrepentant about its intrusion into Pakistani space, and has considered that the goal fully justified the means employed ~ indeed, far from assuaging Pakistani anger, the highest US officials have periodically spoken of their readiness to strike again if similar circumstances are found to exist. So much repair work remains to be done.
Rebuffed by the USA, Pakistan has turned to its ‘all weather friend’ China. As it is, in recent months, even before the Bin Laden episode, there has been a considerable stepping up of joint activity between the two in Pakistan’s border areas. Partly this is fortuitous: floods and landslides in the mountains have played havoc with the connecting road that China had built several years ago, and Pakistan has had to turn again to China to repair what it considers to be its strategic lifeline to that country. A work brigade organized on military lines remains engaged on this task. Senior figures from Pakistan have visited China, presumably to coordinate views and actions on the fallout from the Bin Laden affair. Unlike many others, China has not been censorious about the fugitive being found in Pakistan. But neither has it moved to fill the gap created by the partial withdrawal of US support. Optimistic Pakistanis may have hoped for a large compensatory commitment but China has not rushed in to help, and it may have reason to consider very carefully before becoming more fully engaged in the tangled affairs of South Asia. Thus Pakistan may be obliged to return to fashioning some sort of working arrangement with the USA, however galling this may seem in the present circumstances.
Where does India stand in the midst of these events? It cannot but take into account that despite all the tribulations it faces within its borders and on its western frontier, Pakistan has retained in full measure its strategic distrust of India. The dangers Pakistan sees from India outweigh in its strategic thinking all the problems on other fronts. Such beliefs reflect entrenched convictions that are difficult to dislodge, even though they have little to do with current realities. The fact is that India does not today represent, if it ever did, the existential threat to its neighbour that some of them fear. It should also be recognized that there are numerous Pakistanis who seek a new, less contentious basis of relationship with India. Most strikingly, at apex level, Dr Manmohan Singh and Gen Musharraf came close to a broad general agreement on bilateral relations through the back channel talks they had orchestrated. This is fundamental and India needs to persist, as indeed it is trying to do, in conveying its basic desire for peaceful and cooperative relations.
In the current disturbed conditions in South Asia, this may be difficult to achieve but the small, incremental measures envisaged in the ongoing ‘composite dialogue’ could well prove insufficient. What is needed if South Asia is to be effectively stabilized and secured from the buffeting that assails it is a genuine sea change in mutual perception, backed by effective and credible measures. This is a task for statesmen who can overcome the familiar restraints, and it must be hoped that South Asia’s leaders will rise to the challenge.
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