INDIA 2030

The draft Global Trends 2030 report, which is likely to be released after the US Presidential elections, will attract a considerable amount of attention as the new Presidency comes into office. The report outlines mega trends and a number of game-changers. By 2030 India and China will grow at a scale and pace not seen before. The question of what India’s approach, values and vision will be is of relevance to our future.

The historical vision of the nation as laid out by India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru sets the tone for today’s discussions about the future. Nehru was the first to see the strategic space that the Cold War opened up for the emergence of a third voice, much against the wishes of the superpowers. And he chose to use it not for his personal glory or for a narrowly defined national interest. He used it to promote world peace and create the peaceful environment that India’s transformation required. And most importantly, Nehru gave India a sense of destiny.

Strategic autonomy

We in India are clear that our goal is to transform India. It is this focus that has made India consistently avoid external entanglements and restraints on our freedom of choice and action. Strategic autonomy as is practised today was and remains the essence of the policy of non-alignment. If we have sought strategic autonomy, it is to be able to pursue this goal without distraction or external considerations.

India is in an exciting transition. A nation constituting one sixth of humanity is undergoing an economic and social transformation on an extraordinary scale. It is taking place in a democratic and federal framework; in the midst of growing political pluralism and social diversity; and, in the context of a continuing debate on equity, opportunity and sustainability.

Internal stability and prosperity lie at the heart of India’s vision for the future. We need at least another 15 years of 9-10 per cent growth, if we are to accomplish the task of abolishing poverty. So, while India is already a major economy in terms of size and ability to influence prices and supply and demand in certain markets, it will remain a country with overwhelming domestic priorities for an extended period of time. This will certainly be true for the foreseeable future.

For these goals to be achieved, India needs a peaceful periphery, collective and secure access to natural resources, and an enabling international environment. India is more than willing to contribute to the betterment of the international situation, to shaping the contours of the global order, to promote global public goods, even as it actively pursues its own interests. One of these important interests and areas of our immediate focus must also be the integration of our neighbourhood through increased connectivity.

We are conscious that we are living in an interconnected world, where our security is shaped by many events outside national borders and by situations of shared vulnerabilities, the primary being threats emanating from terrorism. Given the strategic uncertainties of the world in 2030, we must develop the means to defend ourselves. Whether this capacity will include our becoming a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond will depend on to what extent we can effect India’s own transformation.

The rise of Asia

Forecasting the future is a tricky business, but present trends do indicate that the rise of Asia - particularly China and India - is a fact that cannot be wished away. The draft report of the Global Trends 2030 also points in this direction. The dramatic shifts in the balance of power as a result of China’s military modernisation will obviously have implications for global and regional security and provoke responses from other major powers depending on their geo-political considerations.

The India story has also been impressive. In 1947, the average Indian lived for 26 years and only about 14 per cent were literate. Today our average life expectancy is 68 years (WHO figures), with women’s life expectancy exceeding that of men by three years, and 2/3rds of our population is now literate. Our economy has also done well in the last several decades. Its fundamentals remain strong, and we hope to surge forward in spite of the current slowdown. While we need to work harder on our developmental and economic goals, there is reason to take pride in our progress, and be optimistic for the future.

The second aspect that will drive global developments is energy production and utilization. Countries will work to ensure access to energy sources. In this, coal, oil, renewable energy as well as extraction of shale gas resources will naturally be relevant. Then, there will be linked issues like the melting of Arctic icecaps, the opening up of opportunities for new shipping routes, and the exploration of oil, gas and mineral deposits.

Technology is developing at a rate faster than can be comprehended. The consequences of this in the domains of space and cyber space, and proliferation are of particular concern. Just as the world had to learn new rules and ways of thinking about nuclear weapons, we are now at the beginning of doing so for outer space and cyber space, both of which are increasingly critical to our daily lives, economies and futures. Advances in technology and discussions about what is called the Revolution in Military Affairs, though interesting and important, may not fully explain the revolutionary changes taking place as a result of increasing “connectivity” and “complexity” in a globalized world. One example of such complexity is the nexus we can see between climate change, rising sea levels, and the resultant migration that could lead to conflict. This would demand a different mindset for accurate predictions of likely implications, and also to find effective policy solutions.

Strategic initiatives

Coming to India’s responses to such developments, as a nation, India has consistently shown tactical caution and strategic initiative, sometimes simultaneously. The record bears this out. Non-alignment itself, in fact, was an act of strategic courage

On our external relations, since 1988 we have made considerable and steady progress in our relations with China. The list of our other strategic initiatives is impressive - the Indo-Soviet Treaty, the India-Sri Lanka 1987 Agreement and the FTA, the India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement, and so on. But equally, initiative and risk taking must be strategic. That is why it is important to peg our goals and use our power to our immediate and overriding aim of domestic transformation. In other words, our condition, and the state of the world, require us not to seek hegemony, or domination, or expansion, or strategic depth. None of these serve our basic interest, even in a defensive sense. Being a bridging power, or a swing state might, in certain circumstances. For example, in the case of piracy from Somalia, which threatens the trade routes, we would seek to build coalitions to deal with the issue. There could be other similar scenarios in the future too.

‘Reverse Engine’ scenario

I was struck by the three postulates in the report, firstly the ‘Reverse Engine’ scenario, according to which the US will draw inward, constrained by its mounting fiscal problems; the second scenario of ‘Fusion’ which suggests that the developed and growing powers could work together to ignite a technological revolution to rebuild their economies; and the third scenario of ‘Fragmentation’, which visualizes a world in which there is absence of widespread political will to solve global problems. The scenario of ‘Fusion’, which is the middle path, is the most likely outcome by 2030. Similarly, the game-changers identified in the report are thought provoking, whether relating to the international economy, global governance, interstate and intrastate conflicts, technology, climate change, energy security, sustainable development, and, finally, from an American perspective, what will be the role and influence of the US in the new international order.

For a better tomorrow

Proceeding from the present and moving into the future requires some clarity on where we stand today. Just as India has premised her future on the transformation of society for a better tomorrow, it appears that the international order will have to work towards a new system of governance.

As Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh pointed out in his remarks to the XVIth NAM Summit in Tehran: “We need new instruments of global governance to confront cross-cutting and trans-national challenges through coordinated global action. These (challenges) include international terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the menace of maritime piracy, the growing threat to cyber security, and the growing challenge of pursuing ecologically sustainable development, while ensuring energy, water and food security.”

Given the scale of these challenges, our present and future are interlinked by our ability to handle the crisis of the present. Only this capacity and capability will give us the means to achieve a more just and equitable world order. Meanwhile, policy planners such as ourselves will continue to look to the strategic community to construct scenarios and “alternate worlds” for us so that we are, so to speak, ahead of the curve, forewarned and forearmed.

There are a number of issues that are likely to continue to engage us in the future. Developments in the Af-Pak region after the withdrawal of US/NATO forces in 2014 and the prospects for instability, or, alternatively, unprecedented regional cooperation, will probably be a priority area. The increasing radicalisation of Pakistan, the possibility of conflict in West Asia provoked by rival geo-political interests, the potential for maritime clashes in North East Asia due to competing nationalisms, and developments in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea are some of the other areas that will be closely watched. These should be carefully analysed in any strategic thinking in India about the future.