Economic, not military confrontation to checkmate China

THE Cold War saw tensions between two superpowers, the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union, over a 40-year period, till the Soviet Union came under severe economic crisis and ultimately dissolved. That was the time when China realised the importance of economic reforms, which she started in right earnest. In spite of being the largest communist country in the world, China opened up her economy and allowed large-scale foreign investments, thereby becoming the world's second largest economy. She is continuing her efforts to become an economic super power by 2020. China had learnt her lessons from the Soviet dismemberment and is hence not leaving any stone unturned in the economic field. She has really converted geo-politics and geo-strategies into geo-economics to achieve the status of an economic superpower before ultimately becoming a global superpower.
Some strategic thinkers may not agree with the view that the Sino-Indian thaw has become a geo-economic tussle or show down. China has realised that in the 21st century, only two elements of power will dominate --domestic economy and military/nuclear power. In last two years the Chinese economy has become a five trillion dollar economy and has crossed the Japanese economy. Only USA remains ahead of China, which she might cross by 2020, if all goes as planned by the Chinese.
In order to analyze the military and nuclear elements of power, it is well known that China has the world's largest conventional army. Chinese armed forces are well equipped and their nuclear arsenal is second largest in the world. Though not aligned with any power block, she is an unchallenged military power. As far as regional deployment is concerned she is completely dominating the South Asian region. If one has to compare the might of China and India, it stands completely in favour of China with a ratio of nearly 2:1. Though India has the third largest army in the world, her requirements are much more and her economy can not afford a larger army at this point of time.
China knows that it can not engage in an outright war with India for good reasons which are mostly related to economic conditions. India is not what she was in 1962 and is now a responsible nuclear state with a clear cut nuclear policy. Therefore, China will engage India through a blocking or indirect interference posture, creating economic hindrances or additional expenditure to India, aimed at hampering India's economic growth. If China employs military elements in a blocking or interfering posture against India, she would do it with economic advantage.
It would be in our interest to join hands with China and engage her in the economic development of South and South-East Asian region. Engaging China economically rather than militarily, may avoid military confrontation. The dragon has outgrown us many folds and any military engagement with it should be avoided keeping in mind long term repercussions.
Let us now analyze how China is employing economic polices and geo-strategies to neutralise India. China's biggest worry is import of crude oil. If we take growth of Chinese economy at seven percent, then the oil import worries are likely to enhance. China imports more than 50 per cent of her oil from Gulf and littoral states. To ensure safe passage of her ships, China has secured port facilities in Srilanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
The facilities in Srilanka are transit facilities while one at Bangladesh are for transporting oil via a rail link being developed through Myanmar to eastern mainland China. A full fledged port facility at Gawadar in Pakistan will be used for moving oil by rail and road to western Tibet via Gilgit. These facilities appear like strategic encirclement and could be used by China for geo-strategic purposes.
Chinese economy may be assessed as a bubble by some economists but so far nothing adverse has been reported in the public domain. China exports both consumer goods and consumer durables to South Asia and to rest of the world. Chinese have cut down their production costs and they may now open their economy further for MNCs. China has learnt from Russia how not to keep the economy fully closed and run into a deep economic recession. China would naturally allow dollar and euro investments.
China’s realisation about her military and economic strength has helped her to become a regional power and will help her further to become a world power. China has realised the importance of economic growth and seen how the economic crisis in the West is affecting growth in those countries. She has a very competitive neighbour like India and it would be ideal for both countries to cooperate in regional economic development without erecting blockades for each other. China and India must not get involved in any military confrontation, lest they suffer economically. The Sino-Indian border thaw can take its own time to resolve. If bilateral relations have stabilised over the past fifty years, then that has proven my point on economic growth, without which both countries would have suffered. Military escalation on part of India or China could lead to an arms race at the cost of economic development. We must remember that 21st century belongs to the eastern giants -- China and India.